KLCI  Weekly Analysis
19 August  2005
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Composite Index Weekly Technical Analysis, 19/08/2005

For the week ended on the 19th of August, 2005, KLCI totally lost 11.5 point or 1.2%, with a weekly high reaching at 938.85 on Monday and a weekly low touching at 919.72 points on Friday.

Main Chart:
On Monday (15/08/2005), KLCI broke the T1 dynamic support and attempted to rebound on Tuesday. However, it was resisted at the T1 and therefore, T1 is now the dynamic resistance for KLCI. As shown on the chart above, KLCI was once supported by the 50 days EMA, and on Friday, KLCI made a daily low precisely at the 50days EMA and rebounded. Therefore, if the KLCI is again supported by the 50 days EMA, we shall see a technical rebound. Nevertheless, KLCI is now facing the resistance at 931 Fibonacci retracement. (Study A)

Bollinger Bands:
For the entire week, KLCI was trading below the middle band, and as a result, KLCI continued its weak momentum. However, the 10 days Bollinger Band width began to contract on Thursday and Friday. If the Bollinger band width continues to contract, we shall expect a consolidation for KLCI. But since the KLCI is still situated below the middle, immediate outlook for KLCI remains bearish bias.

In addition to that, we could see that the KLCI is supported by the lower band of the 20 days Bollinger Bands because if the KLCI were to trade below the lower band, it would suggests an over-sold condition for KLCI, and a pull-back effect would be expectable.

Volume:
Total market volume for the week stood at 17.23 million lots, which was a 11.5% decreased from previous week's total market volume. On the daily basis, we see that the total market volume for the entire week were below the 40 days VMA level. This suggests that the market was still relatively quiet. (Study B)

MACD:
Ever since the sale signal has been triggered on the 5th of August, the MACD line has been pointing downwards and as a result, it has dampen the longer market sentiment. However, for the short term, we see a round bottom signal from the MACD histogram. If the histogram continues to tick higher on the coming trading days, it would suggests a short-term consolidation or even a technical rebound for KLCI. (Study C)

WinChart RSI:
Although KLCI has lost a total of 27 points from this year's high, WinChart RSI has not shown any bearish sentiment for the KLCI yet. This is because the WinChart RSI is still staying above the 30% level, which is a neutral zone. However, since it is below the 50% level, therefore it suggest a neutral market sentiment with a slightly bearish bias. (Study D)

Stochastic:
After touching the zero level on Monday, %K of Stochastic has signaled an over-sold conditions for KLCI, and therefore, KLCI had a mild technical rebound. Nevertheless, since both lines of Stochastic are still below the 30% level, market sentiment for the short-term remains bearish. (Study E)

In the Nut Shell:
Since the KLCI is supported by the 50 days EMA, we hope to see the Bollinger band contract where by the KLCI would consolidate above the 920 level. If the above conditions fail to conceive, expect more downward movement for KLCI.

 

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