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Composite Index Weekly Technical Analysis, 07/10/2005
For the week ended on the 7th of October 2005, the Composite Index lost a
total of 2.33 points to 925.21 points. For the entire week, KLCI was trading at
a narrow range of 6.47 points.
Main Chart:
KLCI has been trading in a narrow range of 6.47 points for the past week.
Support for the KLCI is still located at the 10 days Bollinger middle band
dynamic support, and the next support level for KLCI would be the 921 Fibonacci
Retracement. On the other hand, resistance for KLCI is found at 928.78 Fibonacci
retracement.
Bollinger Bands:
For the past week, 10 days Bollinger band width was generally narrowing with
the KLCI situated above the middle band. However, on Friday, KLCI closed
marginally below the middle band, and as a result, the immediate outlook for
KLCI has turned cautious. Nonetheless, because the band width is basically still
contracting, it suggests that the volatility of KLCI is low, thus KLCI is likely
to go sideways until a clear opening of the band width. (Study A)
Volume:
Total market volume for the week was at 20.67 million lots, which was 6.1%
lower than last week's total market volume. On daily chart, total market volume
for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday was higher than the 40 days VMA level;
while on Friday, volume was barely at the 40 days VMA level. Overall, market
participation was considered active. (Study B)
MACD:
As pointed in the C circle, the MACD has a possible sign of changing
direction and getting closer to the Trigger line. As a result, the histogram
also pointed lower. This is due to the consolidation of the KLCI, and since the
Bollinger band width is narrowing, significant of signals from any secondary
indicators is reduced. Nonetheless, if we see the MACD line crosses below the
trigger line, it suggests a sell signal for KLCI. (Study C)
WinChart RSI:
As shown in the D circle, WinChart RSI has failed to hold up above the 70%
level. From the reading of the WinChart RSI, it appears that the KLCI is not
showing any bullish strength; but however, since the WinChart RSI is still above
the 50% level, it suggests that the market sentiment is neutral with a slight
bullish bias. (Study D)
Stochastic:
Ever since dropping below the 70% level on Monday, %D of the Stochastic has
shown that the short-term bullishness has ended. At this moment, %K has dropped
slightly below the 50% level suggesting that the short-term market sentiment is
at neutral. (Study E)
In the Nut Shell:
In conjunction with the consolidation of KLCI, indicators readings are
neutral. At this moment, market direction is unclear and during this
consolidation phase, it is a good idea to study the Bollinger bands over other
secondary indicators for during a sideways market, accuracy of signals from
secondary indicators are slightly reduced.
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