KLCI  Weekly Analysis
14 October  2005
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Composite Index Weekly Technical Analysis, 14/10/2005

For the week ended on the 14th of October 2005, the Composite Index gained an insignificant of 0.38 points to 925.59 points.

Main Chart:

As shown on the chart above, KLCI was resisted by the 928.78 WinChart automatic Fibonacci retracement line for the entire week while mostly supported by the 10 days Bollinger middle band dynamic support. At the moment, resistance for KLCI remains at the928.78 Fibonacci line while the support is now at the 921 or the 20 days Bollinger middle band. (Study A)

Bollinger Bands:

For the whole week, both 10 days and 20 days Bollinger Bands were narrowing; and especially for the 20 days Bollinger bands, the band width is now narrowed to a point where it rarely happened in KLCI historical data. Nevertheless, both 10 days and 20 days Bollinger bands suggest that the KLCI is still going sideways.

Volume:

Total market volume for the week stood at 19.01 million lots, an 8% decreased from last week's total market volume. Generally, market volume has been falling gradually indicating that the market participation is getting less active. This is considered as normal for the market has been aimlessly going sideways and the entire market mood seems dull. (Study B)

MACD:

With the KLCI going sideways, the MACD line began losing its momentum and on Friday touched the trigger line. If the MACD line continues to go down further, it shall trigger a sell signal thus suggests that the market sentiment would turn to bearish. However, due to the contraction of the Bollinger bands, the significant of the MACD signal is decreased. (Study C)

WinChart RSI:

As expected, with the KLCI going in a narrow sideways range, the WinChart RSI also showing no significant strength of weakness. It suggests that the market sentiment is at neutral. (Study D)

Stochastic:

For this week, %K of the Stochastic has been floating between the 50% - 70% zone, and on Friday, it has dropped below the 50% level. If the %K drops below the 30% level, it shall trigger a first warning signal, thus suggests that the short-term market sentiment has turned to bearish. The short-term bearish signal would be confirmed when we see the %D drop below the 30% with the %K remains below 30%. At this moment, short-term market sentiment remains neutral. (Study E)

In the Nut Shell:

Although KLCI has dropped marginally below the 10 days Bollinger middle band, and indicators signals suggests some slight weakness, overall market is still at a consolidation phase. However, bare in mind that when the KLCI is going sideways, signals from the secondary indicators are more likely to create noise. Therefore, Bollinger bands shall be a more reliable indicator to keep track of KLCI's next move. On the other hand, the 928.78 resistance level is an important level which could not be overlooked and KLCI is unlikely to gain strength unless a valid break out from this resistance with convincing volume.

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