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Composite Index Weekly Technical Analysis, 28/10/2005
For the week ended on the 28th of October 2005, the Composite Index lost a
total of 3.79 points to 905.79 points.
Main Chart:
For this week, KLCI was pretty much going sideways or in a consolidation
phase. However, the KLCI is now resisted by the 906 Fibonacci retracement line,
in which all five of the trading days closed below 906 despite having intra-day
highs above the 906 level. Support for KLCI is now at the 895 Fibonacci
retracement while the resistance are at the 906 Fibonacci retracement as well as
the 10 days Bollinger middle band dynamic resistance.
Bollinger Bands:
After a down fall of 7 trading days consecutively, the KLCI had a Bollinger
bands pull-back effect on Tuesday the 25th of October, and since then, KLCI has
been going sideways. As a result to the decrease of volatility, the 10 days
Bollinger band width began to contract. Therefore, provided we see the
contraction of the band width continues, KLCI is likely to consolidate further,
until the re-opening of the band width which would then determine the next
direction of KLCI.
Volume:
Due the the upcoming Hari Raya and Deepavali holiday which lead to a
shortening of trading days in Bursa Malaysia, we see that the total market
volume for this week was only at 15.34 million lots, a 20% lower from last
week's total weekly volume. Needless to say, volume at this rate has failed to
reach the 40 days VMA level which, by interpretation, suggests that the market
participation was inactive. (Study B)
MACD:
In line with the Bollinger bands signal on the 17th of October, the MACD
triggered a sell signal on the 17th of October as well. Since then, the MACD has
been moving downward suggesting a dampen market sentiment. However, a round
bottom signal from the histogram was formed on Wednesday (26/10/2005) which
suggested that the KLCI was to undergo a technical rebound or consolidation. At
the moment, the histogram round bottom signal is still visible, thus, KLCI
consolidation is expected to continue until a round top signal is seen, which
would suggest and end to the consolidation. (Study C)
WinChart RSI:
WinChart RSI entered the mid-term bearish zone on 21st of October (last
Friday), which signaled that the mid-term market sentiment has turned bearish,
and market was expected to be bearish bias. At this moment, WinChart RSI remains
situated below the 30% level and as a result, KLCI mid-term sentiment remains
bearish. If we see the WinChart RSI breaking above the 30% level, KLCI sentiment
would then turn to neutral. (Study D)
Stochastic:
Ever since the %K of the Stochastic entered the short-term bearish zone on
the 17th of October, till now, KLCI has lost a total of 18.48 points or 2%.
Currently, both %K as well as %D lines are situated below the 30% level which
suggest that the market in the short-term is still bearish. If we see the %K
crosses above the 30% level, which is the first signal that suggest that the
market sentiment would turn to neutral from bearish. (Study E)
In the Nut Shell:
With indicators are still showing bearish sentiment, outlook for KLCI is
still at a bearish bias while consolidate below the 906 resistance level. In
short, KLCI must break above the 906 level or the 10 days Bollinger middle band
in order to regain the dampen sentiment, or else, if the Bollinger band reopens,
with the KLCI situated below the middle band, could signal another round of
selling.
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