KLCI  Weekly Analysis
28 October  2005
Copyright (c) 1997-2005 smallLogo.gif (3284 bytes)(M) Sdn Bhd 
All Rights Reserved.
Why pay thousand of Ringgit to attend seminar or workshop? Now you can learn "Technical Analysis" absolutely FREE online. Plus FREE for all members for unlimited classes by our professional lecturer, CALL 03-8941 6828 for details.
Online Technical Analysis tutorial, click here now.
Composite Index Weekly Technical Analysis, 28/10/2005

For the week ended on the 28th of October 2005, the Composite Index lost a total of 3.79 points to 905.79 points.

Main Chart:
For this week, KLCI was pretty much going sideways or in a consolidation phase. However, the KLCI is now resisted by the 906 Fibonacci retracement line, in which all five of the trading days closed below 906 despite having intra-day highs above the 906 level. Support for KLCI is now at the 895 Fibonacci retracement while the resistance are at the 906 Fibonacci retracement as well as the 10 days Bollinger middle band dynamic resistance.

Bollinger Bands:
After a down fall of 7 trading days consecutively, the KLCI had a Bollinger bands pull-back effect on Tuesday the 25th of October, and since then, KLCI has been going sideways. As a result to the decrease of volatility, the 10 days Bollinger band width began to contract. Therefore, provided we see the contraction of the band width continues, KLCI is likely to consolidate further, until the re-opening of the band width which would then determine the next direction of KLCI.

Volume:
Due the the upcoming Hari Raya and Deepavali holiday which lead to a shortening of trading days in Bursa Malaysia, we see that the total market volume for this week was only at 15.34 million lots, a 20% lower from last week's total weekly volume. Needless to say, volume at this rate has failed to reach the 40 days VMA level which, by interpretation, suggests that the market participation was inactive. (Study B)

MACD:
In line with the Bollinger bands signal on the 17th of October, the MACD triggered a sell signal on the 17th of October as well. Since then, the MACD has been moving downward suggesting a dampen market sentiment. However, a round bottom signal from the histogram was formed on Wednesday (26/10/2005) which suggested that the KLCI was to undergo a technical rebound or consolidation. At the moment, the histogram round bottom signal is still visible, thus, KLCI consolidation is expected to continue until a round top signal is seen, which would suggest and end to the consolidation. (Study C)

WinChart RSI:
WinChart RSI entered the mid-term bearish zone on 21st of October (last Friday), which signaled that the mid-term market sentiment has turned bearish, and market was expected to be bearish bias. At this moment, WinChart RSI remains situated below the 30% level and as a result, KLCI mid-term sentiment remains bearish. If we see the WinChart RSI breaking above the 30% level, KLCI sentiment would then turn to neutral. (Study D)

Stochastic:
Ever since the %K of the Stochastic entered the short-term bearish zone on the 17th of October, till now, KLCI has lost a total of 18.48 points or 2%. Currently, both %K as well as %D lines are situated below the 30% level which suggest that the market in the short-term is still bearish. If we see the %K crosses above the 30% level, which is the first signal that suggest that the market sentiment would turn to neutral from bearish. (Study E)

In the Nut Shell:
With indicators are still showing bearish sentiment, outlook for KLCI is still at a bearish bias while consolidate below the 906 resistance level. In short, KLCI must break above the 906 level or the 10 days Bollinger middle band in order to regain the dampen sentiment, or else, if the Bollinger band reopens, with the KLCI situated below the middle band, could signal another round of selling.

Copyright 1997-2005 Straits Index (M) Sdn. Bhd.