KLCI  Weekly Analysis
02 November  2005
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Composite Index Weekly Technical Analysis, 02/11/2005

For the week ended on the 2nd of November 2005, the composite index ended 8.13 points higher at 913.92 points, gained 0.9%.

Main Chart:
As shown on the chart above, KLCI might be forming a descending triangle chart pattern with the L1 as the dynamic resistance while the L2 as the support which is also the 906 Fibonacci retracement support line. On the other hand, resistance for KLCI is at the 917.57 Fibonacci retracement line.

Bollinger Bands:
On Wednesday, KLCI breached above the 10 days Bollinger middle band. However, 10 days Bollinger band width continue its contraction, narrowing another 19%. This suggests that the direction for KLCI is still unclear. (Study A)

Volume:
Due to the long festive holiday, total market volume for this week only stood at 4.63 million lots. For the daily chart, volume were also severely below the 40 days VMA level, market participation was indeed quiet. (Study B)

MACD:
As indicated in C, the MACD histogram continue its up tick and no visible round top pattern is forming at this moment. Therefore, KLCI is likely to continue its technical rebound. If the MACD line crossed above the trigger line, it shall trigger a buy signal. However, if the Bollinger band by then is still contracting, significant of the buy signal is reduced. (Study C)

WinChart RSI:
On Wednesday, the WinChart RSI moved higher, but still below the 30% level. According to the WinChart RSI reading, mid-term market sentiment is still bearish, but however, if the WinChart RSI could break above the 30% level by next week, market sentiment would be turning from bearish to neutral. (Study D)

Stochastic:
On Monday, %K of the Stochastic has already suggested that the short-term bearish market sentiment might be ended, and on Wednesday, %K line continued moving higher, and even crossed above the 50% level. If the %D crossed above the 30%, it shall confirmed that the short-term bearish sentiment has ended. Mean while, short-term market sentiment is at neutral. (Study E)

In the Nut-Shell:
Although KLCI advanced, it is still considered as a technical rebound. With the short-term indicator suggesting that the market sentiment is turning to neutral, longer term indicators are still on the negative side. Especially with the low trading volume due to the festive holiday, market direction is still unclear.

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