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Composite Index Weekly Technical Analysis, 25/11/2005
For the week ended on the 25th of November, 2005. the Composite Index gained
a marginally 2.56 points to 290.28 points, with the weekly high of 909.56 points
on Tuesday.
Main Chart:
As shown on the chart above, the KLCI is trending in a down trend channel,
with the T1 as the dynamic resistance while the T2 serving as the dynamic
support. On Friday, the KLCI closed precisely at the T1 resistance line, failing
to break away from the down trend channel.
At the moment, support for KLCI falls on the 891 level while the resistance
remained at the 906 Fibonacci level.
Bollinger Bands:
After going through a contraction for 5 consecutive days, the 10 days
Bollinger band width reopened 5% on Friday with the KLCI situated above the
middle band. If the Bollinger band width continue to expand, the KLCI is likely
to have more upside potential.
Volume:
Total market volume for this week stood at 13.56 million lots, or a 6.6%
increased from last week's total market volume. On the daily chart perspective,
there is a slight improvement on the total market volume. If the volume continue
to increase, it shall promote more liquidity to the overall market. (Study B)
MACD:
On Monday, the MACD line crossed above the trigger line, and issued a buy
signal. However, due to the contraction of the Bollinger band width, significant
of this signal was reduced. Nonetheless, since then, the MACD line has been
gradually moving higher. If the MACD continues its upward momentum, it shall
imply that the KLCI likely to break away the down trend channel (Study C)
WinChart RSI:
Currently, the WinChart RSI is situated in the neutral zone. Since the
WinChart RSI is still below the 50% level, it suggests that the KLCI still has a
slight negative bias. Anyhow, if the KLCI were going sideways, we shall see the
WinChart RSI going around the 50% level. (Study D)
Stochastic:
%K of the Stochastic has once again touched the 70% level. If it crosses
above the 70% level, it will suggests that the KLCI has entered the short-term
bullish zone. If we see the %D line crosses above the 70% also, it shall confirm
the %K signal, thus short-term market sentiment would be bullish. (Study E)
In the Nut Shell:
Although a slight signal from the Bollinger band width and the %K of the
Stochastic as well as the increasing market volume showed some positive signs,
KLCI remained resisted by the T1 line. Until a valid break out away from the
down trend channel, out look for KLCI remains cautious.
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