KLCI  Weekly Analysis
02 December  2005
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Composite Index Weekly Technical Analysis, 02/12/2005 © Copyright by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd

For the week ended on the 2nd of December, 2005, the Composite Index lost at total of 19.14 points, or a 2.1%, to 885.14 points.

Main Chart:
With the KLCI trading in the down trend channel, formed by the T1 dynamic resistance and the T2 dynamic support lines. The KLCI opened at at 904.18 points on Monday and since then, it has been heading south until on Friday, where it made a weekly low at 883 points and closed at 885.14 points.

As shown on the chart, T1 remains the dynamic support for KLCI. On the other hand, WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement system also showing that the KLCI's immediate support is at 881 level, which is very closed to the T2 support line.

Bollinger Bands:
Until Friday's closing, the 10 days Bollinger band width is still showing an expansion of 27%. Although this amount was relatively small than the previous days, with the KLCI still situated below the middle band, immediate outlook for KLCI would still be bearish bias. (Study A)

However, if the KLCI were to close even lower on Monday, it would be quite likely to break below the 20 days Bollinger lower band; and if that is the case, a pull-back effect would take place in the short-term and KLCI is expected to have a technical rebound.

Volume:
For last week, the total market volume stood at 14.47 million lots, 6.7% increased from the previous weekly trading volume. Based on the weekly chart, we can see the total market volume for the last 3 weeks has been gradually increasing. This is a sign of market participation recovery, and it shall greatly promote the liquidity of the market as a whole. (Study B)

MACD:
No positive signal from the MACD reading, for both the MACD line and the histogram are showing that the bear is in control. However, if we see a round bottom signal from the histogram, it shall suggests a temporary technical rebound for KLCI. Other than that, the long term market sentiment is still on the negative region. (Study C)

WinChart RSI:
Although the KLCI has been heading downward, the WinChart RSI, on the other hand, was only showing a neutral sentiment for KLCI. Nevertheless, if the the WinChart RSI break below the 30% level, market sentiment for the mid-term would be bearish bias. But, if the KLCI were to rebound from T2, we might be able to see a bullish divergence signal from the WinChart RSI, and it might suggests a reversal for KLCI. (Study D)

Stochastic:
Without any doubts, the %K of the Stochastic had entered the short-term bearish zone on Wednesday, and the %D has confirmed the %K's signal on Thursday. At the moment, both lines are suggesting that the short-term market sentiment will remain bearish until a break out from the bearish region. (Study E)

In the Nut Shell:
With only the WinChart RSI showing neutral signal, other indicators are having a bearish consensus. Because the KLCI is still trending in the down trend channel, out look for the KLCI is still bearish until a break out away from down trend. Nonetheless, look for a support at T2. If the market volume can pickup tremendously, we might see a strong rebound and it might suggests a possible reversal.

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