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Composite Index Weekly Technical Analysis, 02/12/2005 ©
Copyright by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd
For the week ended on the 2nd of December, 2005, the Composite Index lost at
total of 19.14 points, or a 2.1%, to 885.14 points.
Main Chart:
With the KLCI trading in the down trend channel, formed by the T1 dynamic
resistance and the T2 dynamic support lines. The KLCI opened at at 904.18 points
on Monday and since then, it has been heading south until on Friday, where it
made a weekly low at 883 points and closed at 885.14 points.
As shown on the chart, T1 remains the dynamic support for KLCI. On the other
hand, WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement system also showing that the
KLCI's immediate support is at 881 level, which is very closed to the T2 support
line.
Bollinger Bands:
Until Friday's closing, the 10 days Bollinger band width is still showing an
expansion of 27%. Although this amount was relatively small than the previous
days, with the KLCI still situated below the middle band, immediate outlook for
KLCI would still be bearish bias. (Study A)
However, if the KLCI were to close even lower on Monday, it would be quite
likely to break below the 20 days Bollinger lower band; and if that is the case,
a pull-back effect would take place in the short-term and KLCI is expected to
have a technical rebound.
Volume:
For last week, the total market volume stood at 14.47 million lots, 6.7%
increased from the previous weekly trading volume. Based on the weekly chart, we
can see the total market volume for the last 3 weeks has been gradually
increasing. This is a sign of market participation recovery, and it shall
greatly promote the liquidity of the market as a whole. (Study B)
MACD:
No positive signal from the MACD reading, for both the MACD line and the
histogram are showing that the bear is in control. However, if we see a round
bottom signal from the histogram, it shall suggests a temporary technical
rebound for KLCI. Other than that, the long term market sentiment is still on
the negative region. (Study C)
WinChart RSI:
Although the KLCI has been heading downward, the WinChart RSI, on the other
hand, was only showing a neutral sentiment for KLCI. Nevertheless, if the the
WinChart RSI break below the 30% level, market sentiment for the mid-term would
be bearish bias. But, if the KLCI were to rebound from T2, we might be able to
see a bullish divergence signal from the WinChart RSI, and it might suggests a
reversal for KLCI. (Study D)
Stochastic:
Without any doubts, the %K of the Stochastic had entered the short-term
bearish zone on Wednesday, and the %D has confirmed the %K's signal on Thursday.
At the moment, both lines are suggesting that the short-term market sentiment
will remain bearish until a break out from the bearish region. (Study E)
In the Nut Shell:
With only the WinChart RSI showing neutral signal, other indicators are
having a bearish consensus. Because the KLCI is still trending in the down trend
channel, out look for the KLCI is still bearish until a break out away from down
trend. Nonetheless, look for a support at T2. If the market volume can pickup
tremendously, we might see a strong rebound and it might suggests a possible
reversal.
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